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SERÁ O FALTA DE SIMBIOSE ENTRE INDÚSTRIA E SERVIÇOS INTERMEDIÁRIOS A CAUSA DA ESTAGNAÇÃO ECONÔMICA BRASILEIRA?

GIOVANINI, Adilson; AREND, Marcelo;

Artigo Completo:

A literatura de serviços mostra que os países desenvolvidos apresentam uma relação de simbiose entre serviços intermediários e o setor industrial. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar se os serviços intermediários contribuíram para o crescimento do PIB nacional e da indústria brasileira no período 1970-2009. A metodologia proposta por Toda e Yamamoto foi utilizada para testar a presença de causalidade no sentido sugerido por Granger entre o crescimento do setor de serviços e o crescimento do industrial. Os resultados encontrados evidenciam a existência de simbiose entre indústria e serviços intermediários. Eles também mostram que o setor de serviços intermediários causa o crescimento do PIB brasileiro e do valor adicionado industrial, enquanto que o crescimento do setor de industrial não contribui para o crescimento do PIB. Paradoxalmente, o crescimento do setor de serviços intermediários consegue induzir um processo autossustentado de crescimento econômico, sendo o mesmo não observado para o setor industrial. O fato de o setor industrial não contribuir para o crescimento do PIB pode levar a conclusão de que o problema brasileiro se encontra na indústria e não no setor de serviços intermediários. A visão aqui defendida é que o problema é mais complexo, e a estagnação brasileira pode ser resultado de uma falta de simbiose entre ambos os setores. A importância dos serviços intermediários aumentou nas últimas décadas com a emergência do novo paradigma tecnoeconômico, porém a presença em território nacional de serviços de menor qualidade comprometeu a competitividade industrial.

Artigo Completo:

The service literature shows that developed countries have a symbiosis relationship between intermediate services and the industrial sector. The objective of this study is to identify if the intermediary services contributed to the growth of national GDP and Brazilian industry in the period 1970-2009. The methodology proposed by Toda and Yamamoto was used to test the presence of causality in the sense suggested by Granger between the growth of the service sector and the growth of the industry. The results show the existence of symbiosis between industry and intermediary services. They also show that the intermediate services sector causes Brazilian GDP growth and industrial added value, while the growth of the industrial sector does not contribute to GDP growth. Paradoxically, the growth of the intermediary services sector is able to induce a self-sustaining process of economic growth, and the same is not observed for the industrial sector. The fact that the industrial sector does not contribute to GDP growth can lead to the conclusion that the Brazilian problem lies in the industry and not in the intermediary services sector. The view defended here is that the problem is more complex, and Brazilian stagnation may be the result of a lack of symbiosis between the two sectors. The importance of intermediary services has increased in recent decades with the emergence of the new techno-economic paradigm, but the presence of lower-quality services in Brazil has compromised industrial competitiveness.

Palavras-chave: mudança estrutural, serviços intermediários, simbiose industrial, Brasil,

Palavras-chave: economic growth, Intermediate services, Symbiosis, Brazil,

DOI: 10.5151/enei2017-51

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Como citar:

GIOVANINI, Adilson; AREND, Marcelo; "SERÁ O FALTA DE SIMBIOSE ENTRE INDÚSTRIA E SERVIÇOS INTERMEDIÁRIOS A CAUSA DA ESTAGNAÇÃO ECONÔMICA BRASILEIRA?", p. 931-950 . In: . São Paulo: Blucher, 2017.
ISSN 2357-7592, DOI 10.5151/enei2017-51

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