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Efeitos de Longo Prazo da Volatilidade da Taxa de Câmbio Real e da Qualidade Institucional sobre a Complexidade Econômica

Long-Term Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Institutional Quality on Economic Complexity

Sousa, Rafael Moraes de; Veríssimo, Michele Polline;

Artigo:

Este artigo verifica se dois canais de mudanças estruturais, a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio real e a qualidade institucional, associados também como variáveis condicionantes de especialização produtiva, podem exercer, paralelamente, impactos negativos sobre a capacidade de um país alcançar níveis mais elevados de complexidade econômica, sobretudo, em países com pauta exportadora dominada por bens primários e baseados em recursos naturais. A metodologia utilizada para a investigação empírica se dá sob a forma de um painel de cointegração, por meio do Pooled Mean Group (PMG), que proporciona estimadores de longo prazo para uma amostra de 54 países. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio real é um obstáculo para implementação de medidas estruturais que visam sofisticar e diversificar o tecido produtivo de um país. Ademais, os resultados também confirmam que a qualidade institucional possui efeitos positivos sobre a complexidade econômica, evidenciando que instituições superiores em qualidade proporcionam melhores possibilidades de desenvolvimento de habilidades (skills) locais.

Artigo:

This paper analyses two channels of structural change, real exchange rate volatility and quality of institutions, both associated as conditioning variables of productive specialization. The aim is to investigate if these channels can exert negative impacts on country capacity of reach higher levels of economic complexity, especially in countries with an export agenda dominated by primary goods and natural resources based. The methodology for the empirical investigation takes the form of a cointegration panel, through the Pooled Mean Group (PMG), which provides long-term estimators for a sample of 54 countries. The results suggest that the real exchange rate volatility is an obstacle to the implementation of structural measures that aim to sophisticate and diversify the country productive structure. Furthermore, the results also confirm that institutional quality has a positive and significant relationship with economic complexity, showing that higher quality institutions provide better development possibilities for local skills.

Palavras-chave: Complexidade Econômica; Câmbio; Instituições; Painel; Cointegração,

Palavras-chave: Economic Complexity; Exchange; Institutions; Panel; Cointegration,

DOI: 10.5151/vi-enei-802

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Como citar:

Sousa, Rafael Moraes de; Veríssimo, Michele Polline; "Efeitos de Longo Prazo da Volatilidade da Taxa de Câmbio Real e da Qualidade Institucional sobre a Complexidade Econômica", p. 436-457 . In: Anais do VI Encontro Nacional de Economia Industrial e Inovação (ENEI): “Indústria e pesquisa para Inovação: novos desafios ao desenvolvimento sustentável”. São Paulo: Blucher, 2022.
ISSN 2357-7592, DOI 10.5151/vi-enei-802

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